Growth Data — Where the Field Is, and How Sparse SG Is on It
Source data: U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2024 county and MSA estimates (released May 2025); MSA boundaries per OMB Bulletin 23-01. Compiled April 2026.
Three things about this data are worth holding together:
- The Mountain West is the fastest-growing edge of our region.
- The growth is geographically concentrated in Idaho.
- Sovereign Grace has three churches there.
That is the whole strategic story in three sentences. Everything below is texture.
The field at a glance
- Region: 14 states (MN, WI, IL, IA, MO, KS, NE, SD, ND, WY, MT, ID, WA, OR)
- Total population (2024): ~54 million
- Total counties: ~990
Largest metros in our territory
| # | Metro | State(s) | 2024 Pop | Growth since 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chicago–Naperville–Elgin* | IL/IN/WI | 9,408,576 | −0.5% |
| 2 | Seattle–Tacoma–Bellevue | WA | 4,095,015 | +1.9% |
| 3 | Minneapolis–St. Paul | MN/WI | 3,690,261 | flat |
| 4 | St. Louis | MO/IL | 2,806,652 | −0.5% |
| 5 | Portland–Vancouver | OR/WA | 2,510,619 | flat |
| 6 | Kansas City | MO/KS | 2,199,490 | +0.3% |
| 7 | Milwaukee | WI | 1,574,731 | flat |
| 8 | Omaha–Council Bluffs | NE/IA | 985,117 | +1.8% |
| 9 | Boise (Treasure Valley) | ID | 836,061 | +9.3% |
| 10 | Des Moines | IA | 727,232 | +4.6% |
| 11 | Madison | WI | 696,525 | +2.3% |
*Chicago crosses into IN/WI; the Illinois portion is in our region.
Chicago is the giant. The 3rd-largest MSA in the United States. A different kind of question than the growth metros — not "where is growth concentrated" but "where is mass concentrated."
Fastest-growing metros in our territory (2020 → 2024)
| # | Metro | State | 2024 Pop | Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boise (Treasure Valley) | ID | 836,061 | +9.3% |
| 2 | Sioux Falls | SD | 286,887 | +8.0% |
| 3 | Kalispell (Flathead) | MT | 113,344 | +7.5% |
| 4 | Bend | OR | 213,116 | +7.5% |
| 5 | Idaho Falls | ID | 167,228 | +5.7% |
| 6 | Tri-Cities (Kennewick–Richland) | WA | 312,517 | +5.3% |
| 7 | Olympia | WA | 305,296 | +5.1% |
| 8 | Bozeman | MT | 124,900 | +4.9% |
| 9 | Coeur d'Alene | ID | 179,565 | +4.8% |
| 10 | Des Moines | IA | 727,232 | +4.6% |
Boise is the standout. The only metro in our region growing nearly 10% in 4 years, and the 8th-largest. The rare combination of large and fast.
The Idaho concentration
Counties >25K population growing >5% since 2020:
- Canyon County (Nampa, Caldwell) — 266,892, +14.5% — Treasure Valley west
- Bonner County (Sandpoint) — 53,955, +13.8%
- Jefferson County (NE of Idaho Falls) — 34,854, +12.1%
- Flathead County (Kalispell, Whitefish) — 114,527, +9.2%
- Kootenai County (Coeur d'Alene, Post Falls) — 188,323, +9.0%
- Ada County (Boise / Meridian / Star) — 535,799, +7.5% — where Center Church sits
- Bonneville County (Idaho Falls) — 133,644, +7.1%
Five of the top-ten fastest-growing counties in our region are in Idaho. No other state in our region comes close to that concentration.
Treasure Valley specifically
Ada County (+7.5%, 535,799) and Canyon County (+14.5%, 266,892) together gained ~70,000 residents in 4 years — roughly the population of Casper, Wyoming, added to one metro in 48 months. Center Church (Star, ID) sits inside Ada County.
Where we rank nationally
Among states by count of fast-growing counties (>25K pop, >5% growth since 2020):
- #8 — Idaho (11 fast-growing counties)
- #11 — Missouri (7)
- #13 — Washington (7)
Idaho is the only state in our region in the national top tier. Only 3 of the 50 fastest-growing US counties are in our region — and they're in Iowa, South Dakota, and Idaho.
Where Sovereign Grace presently sits in this picture
Across WA, OR, ID, MT, WY — five states, enormous geography, and the fast-growing edge of our region — Sovereign Grace has only three churches:
- Emmaus Road, Bozeman (MT)
- Center Church, Star (ID) — recently planted, sits inside Ada County
- Covenant Fellowship, Roseburg (OR)
Idaho — the single most concentrated growth zone in our entire 14-state region — has exactly one SG church, and it's a brand-new plant. This is a strategic vacuum at precisely the point of greatest demographic momentum.
See also
- 06 — Reality Respecters — who is actually moving into these growth counties, and why that matters theologically
- 07 — Current SG Footprint — the present 8 + 2 churches, the isolation map
- 01 — Proposed Map — how the two-region split aligns with the growth picture
- 00 — Index — back to the landing page